The Human Development Index (HDI) is a composite index that includes three basic dimensions of human development are assessed reflect the status of the basic capabilities of the population, namely health, educational achievement, and purchasing power. On the research of the HDI classified/classified into two, namely low and medium medium high. The data found that there were similarities between the HDI values of adjacent territories, geographically, which resulted in an adjacent region of HDI classification is the same. This is allegedly due to dependencies/relationship of interdependence between regions. From the above discussion, the HDI data in this study is based on a spatial probit regression method. This study aims at assessing the parameters estimator applied to the HDI classification data in Java and model the factors that affect the classification of the HDI in Java as well as determine the best model by using spatial autoregressive probit regression models. The selection of variables was conducted in backward elimination, While parameter estimation is performed using MCMC methods of Gibbs sampler with a Bayesian approach. Use the predictor variables are eight, among which two variables a variable percentage of poor people and the average age of first marriage for women is revealed statistically significant to be included in the model.
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